Depending on the stringency of a temperature target, emission reductions are anticipated to transform all sectors and all economic activities across the globe. Sep 12, 2012 the global energy assessment gea is now available from cambridge university press. The power sector led the gains, with renewablesbased electricity generation increasing at its fastest pace this decade. Mckinsey energy insights global energy perspective, january 2019. Dr anil kane, president of the world wind energy association. Your judgments are sought about potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. Bp considers the scenarios in the outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming. Key findings global primary energy consumption has grown rapidly over the past 25 years, reaching 546 quadrillion btu qbtu in 2015, more than 190 qbtu higher than 1990 levels. Sergey paltsev massachusetts institute of technology, cambridge, ma, usa. All purchasers are able to download the detailed projections provided in the annex of the.
A need for a lowcarbon world has added a new challenging dimension for the longterm energy scenarios development. In the efficient world scenario, energy intensity will improve by around 3% per year, a stepup from current levels, resulting in minimal increases in energy demand, despite the global economy doubling global primary energy demand, gdp and intensity, historically and in the ews, 200040 energy intensity improvements will accelerate 0 100 200 300. Panos energy economics group paul scherrer institut workshop at the 70th semiannual etsap meeting, madrid, 17. Historical 1850 1900 1950 2000 16 30 2050 cagr % 0. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. The energy sources, that are either found or stored in nature are a secondary energy sources b primary energy sources c both a and b d none of the above 2. Since the world energy council last published its world energy scenarios in 2016, we have experienced three years of comparatively high, carbon. Dec 12, 2016 world energy scenarios 2016 preliminary 1. The world energy council has been developing and using world energy scenarios for over a decade to support its global member network of energy leaders, to clarify complexity, and to realise new opportunities for successfully managing global energy transition. This scenario charts a path fully aligned with the paris agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to well below 2c and pursuing efforts to limit it to. Using a range of data, the team can map out the most significant factors in policy, technology and consumer choice. These drivers provide the broader context for determining global energy pathways to 2040. These regionally focused scenarios are is produced using a world energy council framework, that was developed. In 2016, the world energy council and its scenarios.
Shell worked with the new york times to illustrate how cleaner transportation fits into shell s sky scenario a challenging, possible pathway for the world to meet the aims of the paris agreement. Over the next 25 years, growth is projected to slow, increasing by roughly 110. Pdf on nov 1, 2010, halsnaes k and others published the global energy scenario in 2050 find, read and cite all the research you need on researchgate. Eias international energy outlook 2017 ieo2017 presents an assessment of longterm world energy markets. Global energy scenarios and their implications for future. The results of the biomass energy scenarios described above show that changes in the increase rate of the global energy demand brought about by both higher technical and economic efficiency have the comparatively highest mitigation effect on the atmospheric co 2 concentration until the year 2100, namely 800 ppm between businessasusual. Global primary energy consumption by outlook scenario 20162050. Global energyrelated co2 emissions by fuel type 19902050 largest global emitters of carbon dioxide by country 2018 global energy co2 emissions outlook scenarios by source 2040. Mar 30, 2017 the global energy scenarios to 2040 publication explains the enerblue scenario ndcs, 34c, its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions in the same way that the commitments needed to move from the enerblue to the energreen 2c energy scenario and some results for the enerbrown 56c. With the heightened awareness of global environmental issues of greenhouse gas emissions by fossil fuels as nonrenewable energy. Scenarios provide an inclusive and strategic framework. Composing energy futures to 2050 world energy council 20. Wir schaffen wissen heute fur morgen highlights from the global scenario study of the world energy council in partnership with psi t.
Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry 5 how to read the study few areas of the economy are as volatile literally and figuratively as the oil and gas sector. World energy scenarios 10 key messages 1 energy system complexity will increase by 2050. Finally, the weo2017 introduces a major new scenario the sustainable development scenario that outlines an integrated approach to achieving internationally agreed objectives on climate change, air quality and universal access to modern energy. The central tool used for quantification was the paul scherrer. Examples of global and danish energy scenarios in 2050. The team has developed the world energy model wem to explore how energy demand is evolving in different countries and sectors. World scenario series scenarios for the russian federation. In addition to the traditional factors like technological. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full.
Global energy scenarios energy forecasting 2017 edition. The complete reports for previous years are available for free download in the. Iiasa gea the first global and interdisciplinary assessment of energy challenges and solutions identifies 41 pathways to provide sustainable energy for the world by 2050. Global energy perspectives to 2050 and beyond 1995 global energy perspectives weciiasa, 1998 energy for tomorrows world acting now 2000 drivers of the energy scene 2003 deciding the future. The energy outlook is produced to aid bps analysis and decisionmaking, and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. The global energy scenarios to 2040 publication explains the enerblue scenario ndcs, 34c, its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions in the same way that the commitments needed to move from the enerblue to the energreen 2c energy scenario and some results for the enerbrown 56c. The global wind energy outlook scenarios as presented by gwec and greenpeace gwecgreenpeace, 2008 examine the future potential of wind power up to 2030, starting from a range of assumptions which will influence the development of the wind industry. Vision 2040 global scenarios for the oil and gas industry. Wind energy 6 the global status of wind power wind turbines generate more than 1 % of the global electricity worldwide capacity at 93,8 gw 19,7 gw added in 2007 wind energy is used in more than 70 countries usa, spain, india and china take the worldwide lead. Energy technology perspectives 2017 etp 2017 highlights how energy innovation, i. Pdf the global energy scenario in 2050 researchgate.
Primary energy consumption worldwide by region 20102018. The world of energy is being reshaped by a set of fundamental drivers, which we term the grand transition. Concurrently, a significant body of scenario literature has evolved analysing how these temperatures changes might influence the global energy system through mitigation policies. The energy system implications of this 2019 scenariobased update. Jul 23, 2019 global energy related co2 emissions by fuel type 19902050 largest global emitters of carbon dioxide by country 2018 global energy co2 emissions outlook scenarios by source 2040. The multiplicity of factors that influence the directions of the petroleum production chain is huge, making the task of preparing strategies and action plans. Explore moving forward, in 3d and augmented reality. The ieo2017 is the first ed ition of this report to include mo del results through 2050, which are. An unprecedented decline in renewable energy costs, new opportunities in energy efficiency, digitalisation, smart technologies and electrification solutions are some of the key enablers behind this trend. Solar pv, hydropower, and wind each accounted for about a third of the growth.
This was used to design a delphi questionnaire that collected judgments and some 3,000 comments from about 150 participants on potential developments that might affect the future of the global energy situation. Pdf energy is a critical foundation for economic growth and social progress. Renewables increased by 4% in 2018, accounting for almost onequarter of global energy demand growth. But the outlook is only one source among many when considering the future of global energy markets. The usa had the largest share of the global reserve 25.
Energy policy scenarios to 2050 2007 global transport scenarios 2050 report 2011. The economy picked up quickly in the aftermath of the crisis, growing at 4. Energy technology innovation can bring more benefits and facilitate transformation, but strong policy signals are needed. Iea energy efficiency 2018 and world energy outlook 2018. Jul 03, 2019 available to download in png, pdf, xls format. Ppt on present energy scenario linkedin slideshare. The global energy transformation is happening, driven by the dual imperatives of limiting climate change and fostering sustainable growth. With contributions from the members of the wec scenarios study. This was used to design the attached delphi questionnaire for phase 2. During the first phase, the millennium projects staff produced an annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports.
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